Former Secretary of Agriculture, Marcelo Regúnaga, commented that, “the foreign currency settlement that we are seeing does not follow what one would have planned for a normal year.”
Argentine agribusiness liquidated USD 2.677 billion during May, according to data released by CIARA-CEC. In this context, this publication contacted former Secretary of Agriculture Marcelo Regúnaga, who stated that the analysis must consider extraordinary factors and the international context, marked by increasing geopolitical uncertainty.
According to Marcelo Regúnaga, the sector is heading towards a historic season. “This year, record exports and record production are projected,” he stated. He emphasized that, “according to the Rosario Board of Trade, 50.4 million tons” have already been exported between January and May, a volume he described as record-breaking.
Impact of the removal of withholding taxes on foreign exchange settlements
However, he clarified that foreign exchange settlements do not fully reflect this performance due to decisions made previously. “The foreign exchange settlements we are seeing do not follow what one would have projected in a normal year,” he noted. He explained that “the decision made last year to temporarily eliminate export taxes on wheat” caused transactions that would normally have been processed in 2026 to be brought forward.
Even so, Regúnaga emphasized the importance of the contribution of the agro-export complex: "We are forecasting around 36 billion dollars from this sector, which is a very important figure."
Uncertainty in the agricultural export sector due to the global situation
He also argued that agricultural markets are no longer determined solely by supply and demand. “Geopolitics is beginning to emerge as a source of enormous uncertainty,” he warned.
According to the interviewee, the current market is "tremendously uncertain," conditioned by political decisions, international conflicts, and logistical problems. Among the factors causing concern, he mentioned tensions in the Middle East, the trade conflict between the United States and China, and the impact of policies implemented by US President Donald Trump.
Regarding the relationship between the United States and China, he noted that Brazil was one of the main beneficiaries. "Those who benefited most from this entire conflict are the Brazilians," he stated, while highlighting that the country managed to consolidate its sales to the Chinese market.
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